Consequences of the Telegram Blockade
Hello everyone! It’s been a week since the standoff between Telegram and Roskomnadzor began. I’ll admit, I was eagerly waiting for some time to pass after the blockade to observe the consequences. Would they be as positive for Telegram as before? Why positive? Because there’s already a precedent.
Back in July 2017, I wrote the following:
Most people have probably heard about the Telegram ban in Indonesia. What amazes me is how the number of app downloads increases in response to such news, especially in countries where the app is being blocked. The image above shows two Rank History charts from AppAnnie for iOS and Android devices.
In Russia, the growth started after Roskomnadzor’s statements at the end of June. In Indonesia, it began with news about local ISIS groups using Durov’s service. I found one such article on Malay Mail Online on June 23. The spikes caused by the topic of blockades are even more noticeable on Google Trends. It’s no wonder, since everyone is talking about it: WSJ, CNN, ABC, Fortune, Reuters, BBC, Washington Post, New York Times, and many others.
The Forbidden Fruit Is the Sweetest
Only someone completely cut off from the internet and TV wouldn’t know about recent events. Digital resistance has spread across the country. According to Google Trends, VPN-related searches have multiplied. But what’s happening with Telegram itself in Russia?
According to SimilarWeb, its Android audience is growing, as Telegram X downloads are increasing in Google Play. There’s a slight drop in the App Store, though. It’s also worth mentioning data from Combot, TGStat, and Telemetr. These services report a 20% increase in daily channel reach and a 39% growth in subscribers.
Overall, the situation in Russia is stable or even positive. But the news about the blockade is being enthusiastically quoted by major Western media. So, it’s very interesting to see if this kind of “free advertising” has affected Telegram’s popularity in the US.
Telegram’s Popularity in the US and Beyond
In the US App Store, Telegram X jumped to 6th place! In Russia, it only reached 70th. Similar trends are seen in the UK, Canada, and Australia—some of the toughest and most expensive markets.
When trying to get Google Play rankings, I ran into a SimilarWeb bug or some service-specific issue I don’t understand. The parameters show two Telegram clients, but the chart is only for one. Still, the growth trend is clear—not just in the US, but also in the other English-speaking countries mentioned above.
What’s happening in Europe is also interesting. To show several countries on one chart, I used App Annie and selected countries where Telegram was already somewhat popular (Germany, Italy, Spain). The growth isn’t as obvious, but it’s still there, just like in many other regions where news about Roskomnadzor’s actions has spread.
The Climax
Now it all seems obvious, but it’s truly brilliant—building Telegram’s marketing around security, reinforced by the image of a refugee from the “Iron Curtain.” Any restriction of this security becomes a matter of freedom for citizens, widely covered by the media. Setting aside conspiracy theories, I’m sure the cards have fallen perfectly here. I mean the product’s popularity among banned groups and the government’s efforts to counteract this.
I’m also fascinated by human nature—our behavioral factors and motives for coherence. The fact that terrorists use Telegram becomes a guarantee of the service’s confidentiality. Although I believe that for the vast majority, security is more of a “shiny wrapper” than the main value of the content (unless you’re a lawbreaker).
Remember the famous Macintosh ad from 1984 shown at the Super Bowl? Steve Jobs played on the same theme: “Big Brother,” the blue giant IBM, total control, and Apple as the complete opposite. There was no real internet back then, but the stereotypes and fears were there. And we’ve all been identified for a long time, at least by our passports.
If you break down any brand into its core meanings, you’ll always find at least one human vice at the center of its communication—laziness, greed, selfishness, or fear—which are the foundation of commercial relationships. Dig even deeper, and you’ll reach the subconscious, which largely governs our sense of security and basic behavior.