Roskomnadzor’s Telegram Block Only Deterred a Small Percentage of Users
After a month of Roskomnadzor’s mass IP address blocks in the “Telegram case,” the popular messenger’s audience dropped by only 7%, and the number of posts decreased by just 2%—a result far smaller than the scale of the agency’s efforts, which caused significant disruptions across the Russian internet.
Developers of Crosser Bot analyzed the activity of nearly three million subscribers to Russian-language Telegram channels. They found that the share of users online during the week before and after the block fell by 7 percentage points. “That’s very little by any measure,” says the Telegram Analytics service, “and there’s reason to believe the real decrease in user activity is even less.”
According to the report, the share of users online in the week before and after the block dropped by 7 percentage points. For foreign channels, the natural audience outflow was 5 percentage points, so the real decline in activity within Russia was about 2%.
The average number of post views per day fell by 15% compared to April. However, analysts don’t see this as critical, noting that during the New Year holidays, views dropped by 28%. Some major channels even reported an increase in views after the block.
The average number of daily posts barely changed (down 2%), and the number of channels that stopped updating was within the margin of error for May, likely due to holidays.
Advertising and Business Impact
There was no noticeable drop in advertising activity on Telegram. “At the very start of the Telegram block, some major clients paused their campaigns, but quickly changed their minds. The end of the holidays confirmed the market’s continued growth prospects,” said Liza Aprelskaya, Commercial Director at Combot.
In April, after the first week of Roskomnadzor’s Telegram blocks, Combot’s analytics showed only a 3% drop in Telegram’s audience. However, many unrelated third-party websites suffered. By the end of the first week, more than 30,000 domains had been affected by the “carpet bombing” of IP blocks.
“Even if you divide that number by three, since not all sites may have been operational, it’s still a nightmare,” said DipHOST head Filipp Kulin, who first reported the mass addition of IP addresses to the banned sites registry. “Ten thousand business owners with website problems is a lot. In the first days, about 3,000–4,000 domains left the blocked IPs. People had to move, losing money. Depending on the site, a move could cost 1,000 rubles and half an hour of work, or, for more complex systems, it could take 2–3 days and require several specialists at $250 an hour. That’s a lot of cash to come up with. Imagine a mid-sized business suddenly needing to shell out, say, 50,000 rubles. That’s the reality.”
Effectiveness of the Block
Based on the results of Roskomnadzor’s actions over the past month, the agency’s effectiveness is highly questionable. Even setting aside the legality of blocking Telegram, and assuming the authorities’ perspective, the damage to the messenger was minimal—comparable to a mosquito bite. The same can’t be said for the Russian internet: beyond reputational and moral harm, Russian businesses suffered significant losses, which will ultimately mean less tax revenue for the state.