Weekly Topic: The Impact of War on the IT Sector and Digital Rights
Stanislav Shakirov, CTO of Roskomsvoboda
One of the first local risks is the situation with Runet (the Russian internet). Hypothetically, there could be shutdowns in Russia, as well as blocks on media outlets, social networks, and messengers. The second risk is sanctions, which have already led to domestic banking apps being removed from mobile app stores. There are also some unclear, but likely sanction-related, incidents. For example, the Intel website does not open in Russia, but works in other countries when accessed via VPN. The third threat is cyberwarfare, which will be accompanied by increased hacker activity from both sides.
On a global scale, it’s important to watch how sanctions are implemented. So far, it seems the most damaging scenario for Russia has been chosen: a ban on technology imports, which will truly degrade the country’s technological and economic potential. This will be very painful, as import restrictions will lead to higher prices for various equipment and an increase in “gray” imports.
The effects of sanctions will be felt in a few years. While it won’t be possible to completely destroy import substitution (since China and Taiwan are still options), and domestic production can be established, overall development will be set back significantly.
Nikita Istomin, Lawyer at Roskomsvoboda
We can expect stricter regulations in the area of digital freedoms. The rhetoric from all sides of the conflict points to this. Security agencies will increase their control over the IT sector, including critical infrastructure. Citizens may face restrictions on their right to privacy. We won’t feel this immediately, at least not in the short term, since the government is often not legally required to notify people about the collection of certain data (for example, during operational investigative activities).
Businesses will suffer indirect losses. Import substitution will intensify, and lobbyists may push their solutions onto entrepreneurs. The IT industry will find itself caught between a rock and a hard place: import bans on one side, and aggressive lobbying on the other. This will primarily affect private companies on the sanctions list and their contractors, who will be unable to work with large enterprises and government agencies that are also under sanctions.
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