Willow vs. Bitcoin: Why Cryptocurrency Has Nothing to Fear Yet
In recent days, the media has been abuzz with news about Google’s quantum computer, Willow, and its potential threat to Bitcoin. Despite alarming headlines, many commentaries only scratch the surface, failing to delve into the real changes quantum technologies could bring to cryptography. At the same time, Bitcoin’s resilience to such challenges is often underestimated.
Quantum Computers and Bitcoin: The Real Threat
Quantum computers will require Bitcoin’s protocol to be updated in the coming years—a process comparable to the Y2K updates. While this will be a complex undertaking, it is not a critical threat to the cryptocurrency. However, the risk extends beyond Bitcoin: quantum technologies could impact the entire modern cryptography system, including financial, commercial, and government networks.
How Powerful Is Willow?
Currently, Willow can process data with 105 qubits, which is a significant achievement. However, breaking Bitcoin would require a quantum computer with a power of 200 to 400 million qubits. According to experts, such a leap is not possible for several decades. Nevertheless, Bitcoin developers are already discussing future protocol changes to counter this threat.
Quantum Threats Go Beyond Bitcoin
Quantum technologies threaten not just Bitcoin, but the entire digital infrastructure. Encryption protects banking systems, e-commerce platforms, medical data, national security, and even smart home devices. Without encryption, the technologies we rely on would become vulnerable.
“Collect Now, Decrypt Later”
The concept of “collect now, decrypt later” is already a reality. This means that attackers may store encrypted data today, planning to use quantum computers to break it in the future.
The Future: Post-Quantum Cryptography
Quantum computers won’t destroy cryptography—they will drive a transition to new methods. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is developing algorithms that can withstand attacks from quantum machines. Based on different mathematical principles, these methods are already being standardized, including through NIST initiatives.
The transition to PQC will require time and significant effort, but it is essential for the security of the future digital world. The deadline for U.S. government systems to switch to quantum-resistant cryptography is set for 2035.
A Turning Point for Technology
The introduction of quantum technologies will be a turning point for humanity. Protocols will be updated, Bitcoin will adapt, and technology will open new horizons—from medicine to materials science. The upcoming transition is complex, but it is also an exciting step into the future.