Why Are There So Many Confident Ignorant People?
“One of the unpleasant features of our time is that those who feel confident are foolish, while those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubts and indecision.” (Bertrand Russell)
You’ve probably been in a situation where your conversation partner knows little about a particular topic but still considers themselves an expert. This phenomenon has a scientific name—the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Often, incompetent people believe they know more than they actually do and love to brag about it. It’s even worse when this person is your boss or someone in upper management. The question arises: “How did this ignorant person reach such a high position?” Let’s try to figure out why this happens.
How People Evaluate Themselves
When evaluating themselves, people usually rely on one of two main principles:
- Comparing themselves to others
- Analyzing the situation
The first group consists of those who know nothing but always know “how it should be done.” You encounter them every day, and their life motto is: “No big deal! Anyone can do this!” Their main way of thinking is empirical—they only see the surface of things and events, without delving into their essence or nature.
Such a person only sees the tip of the iceberg and never thinks about what’s hidden beneath the surface. This happens partly due to a lack of knowledge and the inability to predict consequences or possible developments. This group has little experience and no reason to doubt themselves, and they don’t care what others say. They are confident and don’t consider their mistakes to be failures, believing that all their blunders are due to external circumstances beyond their control: “It’s not me, the nails are crooked,” “The bathtub would have fit if the legs screwed into the floor,” “I designed it, but the production messed up,” and so on. These people don’t reflect on their actions—if something goes wrong, they just confidently move on. In some ways, life is easier for them: they live in blissful ignorance of many aspects of life.
Studies of the Dunning-Kruger effect among this group show that, time after time, regardless of the topic, participants who actually performed in the bottom 10% believed they were around the 70th percentile and felt like experts.
What About the Second Group?
People in the second group analyze situations from all sides, thinking theoretically and connecting events and phenomena into a single system. They often fall into the opposite extreme: believing that “knowledge is power,” they may unsuccessfully try to solve a complex problem and end up feeling disappointed in themselves and their abilities when they can’t find a solution.
Why Do the Ignorant Become Leaders While Intellectuals Doubt Themselves?
Amateurs are very confident, unaware of their incompetence, and overestimate themselves while failing to recognize the achievements of others. Smart people, on the other hand, understand that the more “area” of our knowledge we have, the longer the “circumference” that touches what we don’t know. Realizing the vastness of human knowledge, an intelligent person often sees themselves as a tiny grain of sand in the desert of the universe, feeling dissatisfied and insecure.
Conclusion
In summary, smart people evaluate what they know, while the ignorant judge what they have no idea about. The real challenge is to figure out who you truly are: a confident amateur or a doubting intellectual.