Conspiracy Theories and Ancient Greek Myths: What Do They Have in Common?
The term “conspiracy theory” was first mentioned in 1909. Up until the 1960s, it had no connection to paranoia or delusional thinking. Once the concept took on its modern meaning, countless conspiracy theories quickly emerged—from claims that the U.S. government planned and carried out the 9/11 attacks, to the belief that Elvis Presley faked his own death. The common thread among these theories is the idea that major world events are part of a larger plan. It’s important to note that very few of these theories turn out to be true.
Despite the relatively recent appearance of the term, the idea that events are planned and carried out by mysterious and powerful forces dates back two and a half millennia. At least, that’s what philosopher Karl Popper believed.
Karl Popper’s Perspective
In his short essay “Conspiracy Theories of Society,” Popper begins by describing the worldview of the ancient Greeks. They believed that the gods took an active interest in human affairs, and that everything that happened did so with their silent approval. For example, they thought events like the Trojan War were a direct result of divine intervention. Popper argues that this belief never truly disappeared, and that today’s conspiracy theorists simply replace “the gods” with influential people or sinister groups “accused of organizing the Great Depression and all the evils we suffer from.”
Popper suggests that many conspiracy theories are based on the idea that every outcome in social life is proof of an intentional order, and that coincidences don’t matter. People are drawn to this view for two reasons: first, they often don’t realize or ignore the unintended consequences of everyday events when trying to explain the causes of major incidents. Second, people tend to think that all events are the inevitable result of previous actions.
Unintended Consequences and the Appeal of Conspiracies
Popper gives an example: suppose someone buys a house. This causes the prices of all remaining houses to rise slightly. The buyer didn’t intend to cause this price increase, but it happened anyway. A conspiracy theorist, who believes that all major social and economic events are planned, might assume that some malicious organization of real estate agents deliberately raised prices. Understanding how purchases affect prices shows that there’s no conspiracy here—the inflation was unintended.
Popper believes this explanation applies not only to houses and the economy, but also to society and the social sciences. Ignorance of true causes, combined with the search for them, leads to grand conspiracy theories.
Are All Conspiracy Theories Superstitions?
Does ignorance of unforeseen causes explain the rise of all conspiracy theories? Popper mainly discusses one type of theory: those that claim most major historical events are planned and carried out by a powerful group of conspirators. These theories try to explain why a particular phenomenon occurred. The philosopher doesn’t address “false flag” operations—covert actions meant to convince the public that they’re carried out by other organizations or states—or claims that the government is hiding the existence of aliens.
Popper doesn’t say that all conspiracy theories are false. Sometimes, people do conspire and act according to a plan to achieve their goals—it’s possible, but it’s quite rare. He gives the example of Hitler and the “counter-conspiracy” he invented against Germany, when most Germans were focused on depriving Jews of civil rights, ostracizing them, and ultimately killing them. The fact that the Nazis’ program wasn’t secret and ultimately failed doesn’t make it any less conspiratorial.
Are all conspiracy theories just superstitions, as Popper suggests? Probably not. The prominent thinker Cass Sunstein reminds us that “the scope of Popper’s explanation in his essay on conspiracies is rather limited.” However, Popper gave us a tool to understand why such bizarre ideas take hold. Some people either don’t realize, or don’t want to realize, that even random events can have significant consequences, and that no one can control history.
In the end, it’s comforting to think that someone powerful is in control. However, the information we have about conspiracies suggests that the world’s rulers aren’t good enough at keeping secrets to succeed in the way Popper describes.